Paul

Nov 282013
 

A strong upper front is nearing Tasmania and features prominently in the 27-11-2013-18z, WeatherTheatre Analysis, snapshot.  The front is made apparent by a deeply folded tropopause (upper surface), seen in the background of the Southeasterly Perspective below.  As a result, rapid cyclogensis is occurring with a surface low quickly deepening.  Most forecast models show the low situated east of Tasmania by Thursday night.

WeatherTheatre 27-11-2013-18z Snapshot

WeatherTheatre 27-11-2013-00z Southeasterly Perspective, showing a strong front near Tasmania, apparent by the folded tropopause (upper surface) and consequently raised Theta (lower) surface, indicating cold air. An upper trough over Western Australia can be seen as a slender vorticity tube, suspended from the surface above, in the right foreground.  Thin cyclonic-vorticity filaments, suspended in the foreground are due to Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alessia.  Red shadings correlate with the strongest winds (upper surface) and warmest temperatures (lower surface). Conversely, blue shadings correlate with the weakest winds (upper surface) and coldest temperatures (lower surface).

A small upper trough over Western Australia, marked by a tropopause vorticity-tube extending down from the surrounding tropopause surface above, can be seen in the right of the snapshot.

Thin filaments of cyclonic-vorticity, visible in the foreground, are due to a Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alessia which is located over the Gulf Country.